Just moments ago, Mitt Romney did what he does best. He chose the safe bet and once again fumbled the ball in his quest to be the next president of the United States. Mitt ended all speculation by announcing his choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate.

Of course, the right is thumping its chest, joyously proclaiming that President Obama will no longer be able to ignore our country’s miserable economy during an especially malicious campaign.

Meanwhile, the left is busy buying bottles of champagne, prematurely celebrating their victory while putting together a slew of campaign ads that pronounce Ryan as the guy who wanted to kill Medicare. For the record, check what Politifact has to say about the left’s Medicare innuendo.

My prediction? Obama wins by 3 points when he should lose.

Yes, I just said President Obama should lose the election.

Yes, I just said that President Obama will win a second term.

With just one sentence, I have managed to piss off loyalists on both sides of the aisle. So now that I have your attention, allow me to explain my rationale.

Why Obama will win

Romney’s selection of Ryan as a running mate only serves two purposes: 1. it forces Obama back into the debate about the economy, and 2.) it spikes the temperature on the right. But just like four years ago, the GOP has done absolutely nothing with this pick to take from the political center…That is why Obama will squeak out a narrow victory. Palin gave McCain an early bump, but it came up far short on drawing critical votes from the political center.

Why Obama should lose

President Obama screwed up royally even before he was sworn into office for his first term. He set the bar for his presidency far too high. In short, he over promised and under delivered.

That alone is reason enough to justify my decision not to renew his employment contract.

Ask yourself this: Why would such an allegedly smart guy promise so much so soon?

It’s simple. Obama’s “Hope and Change” was a tactic born of grandiose arrogance and fueled by a troubling naiveté of how the world works.

Remember four years ago? This president was going to be so much different. He was going to change Washington. No more business as usual. No more cozying with lobbyists. Superior transparency and political accountability would be the new norm. He was going to fix the economy, end our wars, give us universal health care and stick it to the rich.

“Yes, we can!” he proclaimed without deference to the stark reality that surrounded him.

I was there on that cold, January day when the nation was about to be forever transformed into something so much better. I did not vote for him, but I was genuinely excited to be part of that historic moment when our 44th president was sworn into office.

The crowd on the Capitol Mall was like nothing I had ever experienced. There was an electric excitement in the air. I am a big guy, but I could not secure my footing. When that massive crowd lurched, I lurched…I was literally moved by those throngs of joyous and expectant celebrants.

It was hard not to believe that we were witnessing something much bigger than a new president taking office. Like Chris Matthews,I also experienced a tingling sensation running down my leg… (in retrospect, that may have been the result of really cold temperatures and a lack of restrooms).

But did Obama really overpromise and under-deliver, or am I just a frustrated cynic?

To answer those questions, I offer some analysis and opinion from a broad spectrum of news and media outlets, including: The Huffington Post, Politico, ABC News and Fox.

Let’s now examine the reality of our president’s 2008 campaign promises:

Healthcare: To his credit, Obama tackled one of our nation’s most complex and dysfunctional systems. The result? The government got in bed with huge corporations by using its force of law to require everyone to purchase health care insurance. In exchange, the corporations agreed to change practices including rescission of policy coverage and extending the term of dependent care. If you’re excited about this, you have very low expectations.

Ending the wars and closing Guantanamo Bay: Instead of troops in Iraq, we now have private contractors quietly cleaning things up in the name of democracy and capitalism. Foreign civilians are still being killed by drone strikes and US foreign policy has changed little, especially when considering that we were happy to celebrate and credit this president for crossing into a sovereign nation without permission and executing a criminal without trial. Yay, us! Guantanamo Bay? Still open for business.

Increase Transparency in government: Not so much, at least according to Politico:

“Open-government advocates say some administration practices are actually  undercutting Obama’s goal. Among their complaints:

• Administration lawyers are aggressively fighting FOIA requests at the  agency level and in court — sometimes on Obama’s direct orders. They’ve also  wielded anti-transparency arguments even bolder than those asserted by the Bush  administration.

• The administration has embarked on an unprecedented wave of prosecutions of whistleblowers and  alleged leakers — an effort many journalists believe is aimed at blocking  national security-related stories. “There just seems to be a disconnect here.  You want aggressive journalism abroad; you just don’t want it in the United  States,” ABC News correspondent Jake Tapper told White House press secretary Jay  Carney at a recent briefing for reporters”

Campaign Reform: Not so much. Check this piece posted on CNS News by Ken Thomas of the Associated Press: “…

Swamped by outside Republican groups in fundraising so far, Obama belatedly decided to give his blessing to so-called super PACs, which can accept unlimited donations from corporations, labor unions and wealthy individuals. Both Obama’s campaign and the White House maintain that the president does not support today’s rules but realized belatedly he must play by them to give himself a competitive chance at a second term.

“He’s not saying that the system is healthy or good,” said Obama spokesman Jay Carney, who was pressed repeatedly about whether Obama’s move was hypocrisy. “He is making the decision, his campaign is making the decision, that the rules are what they are. And they cannot play by a different set of rules than Republicans are playing.”

That’s not consistent with what Obama has said about the groups, though. And now, by putting strategy above all else, Obama opened himself to criticism that he had compromised on principle and succumbed to the rules of the same Washington game he pledged to change.”

Jobs and the Economy: Epic fail and the starkest example of overpromise and under-delivering.

Business Insider: ” . . . the Obama administration drastically underestimated how bad the economy was and drastically overestimated its ability to do something about it.

As a result of this, President Obama over-promised and under-delivered on the single most important challenge of his Presidency: Jobs.”

Huffington Post: “. . . A slew of weak data has led economists in recent weeks to  ratchet back their expectations for U.S. economic growth. A  Reuters poll published on Wednesday found economists expect the  nation’s Gross Domestic Product to expand at only a 2 percent  annual rate in the second quarter.

Projections for hiring also have been cut. According to the  poll, the economy is likely to add an average of 147,000 jobs a  month between now and October, too few to make much of a dent in  the nation’s 8.2 percent jobless rate.

As the economic recovery threatens to stall for the third  summer in a row, voters are registering deep doubts about  Obama’s leadership, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released  on Tuesday. More now believe Romney would be stronger than Obama  in dealing with the economy and creating jobs. . .”

How is the world better today than it was four years ago? How much has Washington changed? Are you better off than you were in 2008?

Can Mitt Romney do any better? Probably not.

Thus, I am a cynic. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.