Maine’s 2026 midterms pose a dilemma for both Republicans and Democrats

Okay, so now it’s official. Former Gov. Paul LePage (Maine’s own version of Donald Trump) has finally announced that he will seek the CD2 seat, now occupied by Democrat Jared Golden who won his last election in 2024 with a razor-thin majority.

Will Golden try to hold his seat, or maybe buy a couple new flannel shirts and spread his wings to run for governor; or maybe run against the constantly shifting Republican Susan Collins in the upcoming senate race?

Former Governor Paul LePage

Golden — sticking to his principles and ideals — has caused a lot of unease from many of his fellow Democrats because of his failure to always toe the party line.

While CD2 does lean much more right than CD1, Republicans are not guaranteed a victory in the mid-terms and Democrats cannot afford to lose a single Congressional race in their attempts to push back against Trump.

Rep Jared Golden, not afraid to stir things up

What am I saying? LePage is closely identified with Trump, a man whose current poll numbers are not even close to strong. Will this help or hurt LePage in his 2026 bid?

Next: What about current Gov. Janet Mills (D)? She is facing term limits. Does she quietly retire and take up teaching crochet lessons in Farmington or does she eye U.S. Senator Susan Collins’ seat?

Mills has been somewhat vague in saying what her next steps will be.

Speaking of Susan Collins, far right Republicans are none too pleased with the current chair of the Appropriations Committee because she has bucked Trump a few times in recent weeks. How many Democrats will hold their nose and vote for her simply because she is a bankable centrist? But is she actually a moderate Republican? She’ll have to be if she wants to win her sixth consecutive senate race.

Senator Susan Collins

Will the Republicans put up a serious primary challenge to the Queen of Caribou? Only if they are insane. Even the strongest MAGA voter knows — deep down — that Collins has consistently rolled over challengers since 1995.

Back to the governor’s race, please tell me that Democrats have higher hopes than Troy Jackson and someone older and more experienced than Shenna Bellows to run for governor. Statewide, both of them would likely be considered as “too left.”

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows

And what of the Democrats bench to take on Collins? According to Newsweek, Jordan Wood and Natasha Alcala—have already announced their intention to run against Collins. Who? My dog has better name recognition, and Sasha is a good girl.

Let’s keep watching. Someone please make another batch of popcorn.

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Automatic for the People

Note: Please see edits below.

Maine Democrats are celebrating tonight, but I think they have a serious problem.

Let me back up.

State Sen. (Elect) Eloise Vitelli
State Sen. (Elect) Eloise Vitelli

Politics is fascinating.

Don’t puke just yet, at least not until you consider that observing politics offers the best of everything: intense drama, fierce competition and hilarious moments of human folly, all wrapped in a package of somber significance driven by human pathology.

It’s like a sporting event, a comedy show, and a night at the Met, all wrapped into a neat little package of 30-second installments.

Okay, so go ahead and puke now if you must. But for the rest of you consider this scenario.

It’s the middle of an all-too-short summer in Maine, where a state senator lands a sweet federal gig and must vacate his seat halfway through his two-year term.

He is a solid Democrat, a progressive, even…respected in his party (a former majority leader in the senate) and handily supported each election cycle by his constituents.

His district (State Senate District 19) is a reliable haven for his party: Mid Coast Maine, the home turf of Senator Angus King, Bowdoin College… not a hotbed of right-leaning conservatism, by any stretch.  Not really true, see edits below.

The Dems want to keep this seat. They still feel the sting of 2010 when they lost the Blaine House and both houses of the Legislature. Another gubernatorial campaign is already underway, and the Dems are absolutely committed to dumping Republican Paul LePage, who has repeatedly embarrassed his own party with ill-advised remarks and a stunning inability to control his temper and message.

Now, back to this sleepy senate district.

Two smart, savvy women lace up their gloves, representing their respective parties. A Green candidate also gets into the race.

Republican Paula Benoit
Republican Paula Benoit

More than $150,000 is spent on the campaigns during just a few weeks. It will likely top $200,000 when all the final campaign reports are turned over for public inspection next month.

It is, according to several political observers — including former State Senator Ethan Strimling — a record-breaking race for campaign funding in a state senate race.

The result?

A turnout of slightly more than 30 percent of the district’s registered voters, and a narrow victory for the Dems. Eloise Vitelli beats Republican Paula Benoit, who previously held the seat from 2006-2008.

Of the 8960 votes cast, the Democrats hold onto their seat by a margin of slightly more than 3  percent, 282 votes.

The Democrats are cheering and drinking bubbly tonight. They deserve the celebration. They worked hard.

But I think they will have a big hangover tomorrow morning.

How do you spend more than $100,000 and win by a little more than 3 percent when the Republican governor is trailing in the polls and you are running a campaign on your home turf?

Conventional wisdom says that the Maine GOP is in trouble and eating their own. Maybe.

But it seems pretty clear that Maine Dems have plenty to worry about between now and next November.

******

Edited to include Benoit’s prior election to the Dist. 19 seat in 2006.

Editor’s note: There is a peril to blog posting when you are a political junkie jacked up on Twitter, caffeine and cigarettes. Some glaring mistakes need to be corrected: 1.) Bowdoin College is not within Senate District 19. In fact, the town of Brunswick is not in Senate District 19, so you can also scratch my reference to Senator Angus King. I was consumed with the Brunswick Times Record’s endorsement of Benoit, thus thinking about Brunswick, instead of focusing on silly things like facts. Not smart.

District 19 may not be a Democratic stronghold, but it’s not a Tea Party demographic either. Like much of Maine, it is shifting and best described as purple instead of red or blue (Props to Gina Hamilton at the New Maine Times for that analysis). Republican Art Mayo who served in the seat from 2002 to 2006 switched parties and became a Democrat in 2004. Gina is much better at facts. Dan Demeritt (@DemerittDan) also pointed out that I did not include the tallies for the Green candidate in the race. Daniel Stromgren garnered 357 votes (4 percent), and Demeritt opines that of every four votes for a Green, one stays home, one goes GOP and two go Dem. So, you tell me: was Stromgren a factor?

In the end, I stand by my original analysis, despite my rush to publish and all of its associated pitfalls. Why?

1.) In 2012 (just last year) Goodall crushed his GOP opponent, Jeffrey Pierce (64-36 percent). Two years earlier, he trounced Republican David Kaler, 52-45 percent.

2.) Republican Gov. LePage is trailing in polls and getting widespread media attention for his gaffes, helping the Dems.

3.) The Dems had the seat and spent more than 100 grand to keep it. They got a 3 percent return for their money and a 30 percent turnout. What “message” are they sending to Gov. LePage? Do they really feel good about that? Really? They are not on easy street. Case closed.

Angus S. King, Jr.

By RANDY SEAVER/ Oct. 8, 2002

In just a few weeks, someone else will be leading the state of Maine, and Gov. Angus S. King, Jr. seems grateful that his two terms in office are about to end. He has granted this one-on-one interview between two speaking engagements, and although it is relatively early in the morning, the state’s 71st governor looks tired.

King won his first bid for public office in 1994 and was re-elected in 1998 by one of the largest margins of victory in the state’s history. He is one of the only two independent governors in the country, and the second in a state known for its quirky political trends.

According to the state’s website, King, 58, graduated from Dartmouth College in 1966 and the University of Virginia Law School in 1969. He began his career in 1969 as a staff attorney for Pine Tree Legal Assistance in Skowhegan. In 1972, he became chief counsel to the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Alcoholism and Narcotics in the office of then-Senator William D. Hathaway. In 1975, he returned to Maine to practice law and began his almost 20 year-stint as host of the television show “Maine Watch” on the Maine Public Broadcasting Network. In 1983, he became vice-president and general counsel of Swift River/Hafslund Company, an alternative energy development company based in Portland and Boston.

You have offered to help negotiate a solution to the problems Biddeford and Saco are facing with Maine Energy. Are you optimistic that even a dialogue between all the parties can be successful?

“I’m optimistic that anything can happen if people sit down and talk with one another, and that’s what I’m hoping can happen here. I have met with the mayors, the city councils and members of Twin Cities Renaissance and representatives from the company . . . and there at least seems to be some movement toward some direct discussions. And I don’t understand why that should be difficult. If George Mitchell can facilitate discussions about a peace process in Northern Ireland, then I don’t know why we can’t do it.

“I don’t know if there is a simple solution to this because you have a large plant with a large capital investment in the middle of a community, and basically — the community, or at least a significant part of the community wants it out; they certainly want the impacts minimized. I don’t know if there is an answer, but we’ll never know unless we try to find it.”

Some legislators have criticized you because you went forward with your computer laptop program, despite facing a projected $240 million budget shortfall. It’s obviously an important program for you, but shouldn’t it have waited, considering that the state’s General-Purpose Aid for education was cut?

“It’s not an important program for me. It’s an important program for the state. The cost is relatively minor when considering the overall education budget, and I think that’s a point that has sort of been lost in all of this.

“The cost of the laptop program is about $9 million a year. The total school budget in Maine is about $1.8 billion a year, which means that it’s one half of one percent of the overall school budget. And yet, it [the laptop program] has the potential to fundamentally change our standing and how our state is perceived by the rest of the world.

“It’s really a question of bang for the buck. The educational benefits of this program are so far out of proportion to a one half of one percent expenditure that it would be just . . . . . . short-sighted is too mild a word . . .for what it would mean to stop it; particularly now that it’s actually in place and people can go see how it works.

“Before, I was arguing for it sort of in the abstract. But now, everybody in Maine can walk down to their local seventh grade [classroom] and talk to their teachers and students and see what’s happening in the classrooms, which is absolutely extraordinary. I have received unsolicited letters from seventh-grade teachers saying, ‘We were opposed to it. We didn’t think it was a good idea, and now we think it’s the most important educational initiative in our lifetimes.’”

“It is really huge, and it has the potential to really leapfrog Maine . . . in terms of where we stand in the world. The other thing that’s sort of frustrating is to read about legislators and legislative candidates saying this isn’t a good idea and we ought to kill it. Everybody in the world is watching this project.

“Within the last month, we’ve had a delegation here from Edinborough, Scotland, including two members of their city council, their superintendent of schools and two [school] principals. They flew all the way here to see this project, and there are some legislators I can’t get to walk across the street to see the project. That’s pretty frustrating.

“We had a delegation from France come to look at it last week. This week, we have a delegation, including the premier from New Brunswick, coming to look at it. We have many states that are interested in it And yet, here we are: arguing about whether to continue.

“All I ask is that people actually take a look at what’s happening and then make a judgment, in terms of other educational expenditures. What could you use $9 million for, one half of one percent, that would have this kind of impact? And the answer is . . . I can’t come up with anything. What is one half of one percent? Is that snowplowing or cleaning materials?

“GPA (general purpose aid for education) is now up to $730 million a year. Teacher pensions are costing the state $900 million a year. This is only one percent, less than that, really, of the whole state budget for education.”

You have also been criticized about instituting state employee furlough days. Some have said that such a program costs more money because of necessary overtime expenses and lost productivity.

“Here’s a case where we had a serious budget problem, and . . . I didn’t think that state employees could be immune from the impacts. People in the public were saying to me, ‘lay them off.’ The three furlough days this year saved us from having to lay-off about 150 people permanently. That was the choice that I had.

“I felt it was less disruptive to have everybody have a little pain, then to have some people really be devastated. That was the decision.”

Why are we having budget difficulties?

“In some ways it’s complicated, and in other ways it’s really quite simple. If you read headlines that say, ‘Stock market up, unemployment down, incomes growing,’ we’re going to have all the revenues we want and need. If you read headlines that say, ‘Stock market at a five-year low, unemployment rate up, incomes stagnant,’ the revenues are going to be down. We are inextricably linked to the overall economy.

“Right now, we’re in a situation in which we’ve had the largest drop in the stock market since 1929. We had Sept. 11. We’ve had a recession that really won’t go away; it’s now one of the longest we’ve had in 20 years, since the early 1970s. And all of those things combined mean that the state is going to be getting less revenue.”

What will your advice be to the next governor?

“We have to prepare a budget between now and December and then essentially turn that over to whomever is elected. And then they’ll have about two months or six weeks to put their stamp on it before they submit it in February.

“My advice to my successor is that they should look for savings wherever they can. They’re going to have to look at our tax structure,. . . so much depends on what the economy looks like. We had a forecast last week that said things were basically worse than we thought, and then on Friday we got economic data from the federal government that said things are better than we previously thought.

“I think [the next governor] will have some hard decisions to make.”

What are your plans for after you leave office?

(Smiles) “Oh, that I can tell you. Mary and I have bought a very large R.V. It’s parked in my front yard. In fact, it’s become my front yard. Mary and I and the kids, who are 12 and 9 (Benjamin and Molly), are going to leave the day after I leave office. We’re going to see the country. We’re going to take about 5-1/2 months, and be back in May or June sometime.

“We’ll go to the Grand Canyon, Mount Rushmore, Glacier National Park and all those places I wish I had seen when I was a kid. And I think it’s okay when my successor takes over, not to have me around as he works through some of the issues he’ll be dealing with. I’ll be away.

After that, we’ll come back to Maine. We’ll continue to live in Brunswick. I have, really honestly, I don’t know. . .I’m not trying to be coy. . . I just don’t know, maybe teach or write . . .I’m just not sure.”

Your proudest accomplishment?

“It’s hard to say because only time will tell. I’ll be honest with you, and I haven’t said this before . . . this computer thing may turn out to be huge. I think it’s bigger than I thought. And it really does have the potential to change things. This thing has enormous potential.

“And I think, if I’ve accomplished anything . . . I am very proud of a lot of specific things. . . the computers, learning results, land conservation, job growth; 75,000 new jobs, first in the nation law on dioxin . . .

“Looking back on this era, it may be that the most important contribution I’ve made is toward Maine’s attitude toward itself. I’ve tried very hard to communicate a message of optimism and possibility to Maine people. We can compete, and we don’t have to apologize and feel as if we are unable to stand with the best.

“I think a leader has a lot of responsibilities; I think there’s a psychological, emotional intangible aspect to being a leader. And maybe that’s why I’m so passionate about the casino issue, because it’s so inconsistent with what our state is. We truly live in a great place.”