While most political pundits and prognosticators in Maine are laser focused on the presidential and Congressional races, I am taking a more local approach and invite you to join me in thinking about the legislative races here in Biddeford, Saco and Old Orchard Beach.
Between now and Election Day (Nov. 5), you can expect to hear a lot more about the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
Here in Maine, many political junkies will also likely be closely watching what is expected to be a very tight contest for the Second District Congressional seat between incumbent Democrat Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault.
Incumbents Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) and Sen. Angus King (I) are virtually a lock for reelection.
But what about the local races, the contests being fought by people you might actually bump into at the grocery store?
Maine Senate Races (Saco, OOB & Buxton)
This year’s contest for the District 31 State Senate Seat is basically a rematch of four years ago between incumbent Donna Bailey of Saco, a Democrat, and Craig Pendleton of Old Orchard Beach. This year, Pendleton is running as an independent. He ran as a Republican in 2020. And lost to Bailey, 13,266-11,007.
Bailey has both the party and incumbent advantage. Northern York County typically leans strongly Democrat and voter turnout is expected to be higher than normal, given the national elections. Pendleton has an uphill battle in this race. (Disclosure: Craig is a longtime friend, and I have endorsed him in this race.)
(Biddeford, Arundel and Lyman)
It’s virtually no contest in State Senate District 32. You can expect incumbent Democrat Henry Ingwersen of Arundel to breeze into victory for a second term. Republican challenger Alfred Schulz is barely putting up a fight and running what appears to be a nearly invisible campaign. Two years ago, Ingwersen easily outpaced Republican David Corbett, 9,676 to 7,209 for his first win.
Maine House of Representatives:
In Old Orchard Beach (District 131), I expect Democrat Lori Gramlich to easily win re-election for a fourth consecutive term in this year’s rematch with Republican Scott Eccleston. In their last matchup (2022), Gramlich easily outpaced Eccleston, 3,170-1,789. Expect a similar result this year.
In Saco’s District 129 House race, former city councilor Marshall Archer, a Democrat, is making his first run for state office. He is unopposed and will replace outgoing Democrat Rep. Maggie O’Neil who is facing term limits.
Another rematch will be taking place In Saco’s District 130 House race. Incumbent Democrat Lynn Copeland will once again face a challenge for a third term from Republican Ted Sirois. In 2022, Copeland beat Sirois by a healthy margin, 2624-1619. Again, you can expect a similar outcome this year.
The Biddeford House races are about as ho-hum as you can get. Democrat Marc Malon is unopposed for a second term in District 133. Former House Speaker Ryan Fecteau bought a new house and is now planning to make a triumphant return to state politics, unopposed in District 132. That seat is being vacated by Democrat Erin Sheehan who announced earlier this year that she would not seek reelection.
In fact, the only contested race in Biddeford will be a rematch between incumbent Democrat Traci Gere and Republican challenger Elizabeth Jordan for the District 134 seat, which represents Biddeford’s coastal neighborhoods. In 2022, Gere cleaned Jordan’s clock, 910-476.
And that’s a wrap. I will step out on a limb and say that I predict Malon and Fecteau to win their respective elections in Biddeford. I also think Ingwersen will probably win over ghost candidate Schulz.
I think it’s also safe to that Archer will win his seat in Saco, especially since he is unopposed. I’ve got $20 that says Gramlich will easily win a fourth term in Old Orchard Beach.
The only race to watch is the rematch between Bailey and Pendleton for the District 31 Seat. Who knows?
Regardless, thank you to ALL of the candidates willing to represent us in Augusta. Please remember to vote on Tuesday Nov. 5!
Never miss another installment of Lessons In Mediocrity! Subscribe today for free!
LESSONS IN MEDIOCRITY 