Survey says . . .

Eliot Cutler

Eliot Cutler

Independent gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler is in trouble.

At least according to the latest All Along the Watchtower survey (and every other poll conducted over the last few months)

Whatever star power the independent from Cape Elizabeth had during the 2010 gubernatorial campaign has all but vanished.

Of the three major candidates, Cutler was the only one to see his support fade (a 40 percent drop) between my two surveys conducted on March 14 and July 24 of this year

Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Paul LePage saw a 19 percent jump in support between the survey period, but Democrat Mike Michaud maintained strong and commanding leads in both surveys, handily winning each with 48 percent in March; and 49.5 percent in July.

As I said previously, this was NOT a scientific poll. It was not restricted to Maine voters, and there are no cross-tabs to analyze. An eight-year-old girl from Toronto could have voted in this survey, so no one should get too wound up about the results . . . except for Eliot Cutler.

Before I proceed, it should also be noted that my latest survey (launched on July 24) had far fewer participants than the earlier survey I conducted in March.

In my March 14 survey, there were 2,411 participants. By contrast, only 122 people participated in my latest survey.

I am not sure how to explain the dramatic drop in participation. It could be that we are in the middle of summer. It could be that people are growing weary of politics and are waiting until Labor Day to get fired up. It could be apathy. It could be a lot of things, but Cutler’s team could have shared this survey widely among their supporters. They could have easily had a small win. 75 votes for Cutler would have resulted in a blog post that “Cutler wins survey.”

gov chart1What would be the value of a minor league blog announcing a Cutler win?

Well, it would be something that Cutler could point to as semi-tangible evidence of his campaign’s viability. It would likely help him more than saying he was asked by the Democrats to be their party’s nominee.

Instead, the results here are just more bad news for a campaign that has yet to have a sun-shiney day during the 2014 cycle.

It’s also further evidence that the Democrats don’t need to worry too much about Cutler, and it’s a bit of bad news for the LePage team that desperately wants Cutler to cut into the Democratic base.

That eight-year-old girl from Toronto probably had no idea about how much power she and her friends could have wielded in the 2014 campaign for the Blaine House.

 

Maine’s next governor. Your choice?

camplogo3On Monday, we will hit the 100-day mark in the countdown to the November 4 election, when Maine voters will choose one of three candidates to be the state’s next governor.

So, for the next four days, I am asking you, your friends, neighbors and co-workers to participate in an online survey about who should be Maine’s next governor.

I will make every effort to limit voting, but I ask that you also exercise some honor. That said, I make no bones about the following: This is NOT a controlled, professional poll and the results should not be construed as such.

This is simply an online self-selected survey — yet another snapshot; a quick glimpse of the electorate’s mood on the eve of what promises to be a rigorous 100 days of fierce campaigning.

Thanks for participating!

 

 

 

 

 

A brave step forward?

Question-MarkEarlier this week, the Maine Supreme Court ruled in favor of a transgendered girl in her case against a public school.

According to a story in the Bangor Daily News, “it is the first time any court in the nation has ruled it is unlawful to force a transgender child to use the school bathroom designated for the sex he or she was born with rather than the one with which the child identifies.”

Did the Law Court make the right decision? Is this a bold step forward in protecting the civil rights of transgendered individuals, or do you think this decision will set a troublesome precedent with unintended consequences?